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Appropriate real‐time forecasting models for the US retail price of gasoline yield substantial reductions in the mean‐squared prediction error (MSPE) at horizons up to 2 years as well as substantial increases in directional accuracy. Even greater MSPE reductions are possible by constructing a pooled forecast that assigns equal weight to five of the most successful forecasting models. Pooled forecasts have lower MSPE than the US Energy Information Administration gasoline price forecasts and the gasoline price expectations in the Michigan Survey of Consumers. We also show that as much as 39% of the decline in gas prices between June and December 2014 was predictable. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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Horst Brezinski Christiane Krieger Günter Ott Harald Hagemann Walter A. S. Koch Horst Brezinski Paulgeorg Juhl Thomas Eger Ulrich Fehl 《Review of World Economics》1982,118(2):381-405
Ohne Zusammenfassung 相似文献
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Winfried J. Steiner Andreas Brezger Christiane Belitz 《Journal of Retailing and Consumer Services》2007,14(6):383-393
Kalyanam and Shively [1998. Estimating irregular pricing effects: a stochastic spline regression approach. Journal of Marketing Research 35 (1), 16–29] and van Heerde et al. [2001. Semiparametric analysis to estimate the deal effect curve. Journal of Marketing Research 38 (2), 197–215] have demonstrated the usefulness of nonparametric regression to estimate pricing effects flexibly. The empirical results of these two studies, however, also revealed that nonparametric regression may suffer from too much flexibility leading to nonmonotonic shapes for price effects. In this paper, we show how the problem of nonmonotonicity can be dealt with without losing the power of flexible estimation techniques. We propose a semiparametric approach based on Bayesian P-splines with monotonicity constraints imposed on own- and cross-price effects. In an empirical application, we illustrate that flexible estimation of own- and cross-price effects can improve the predictive validity of a sales response model substantially, even when price response curves were constrained to show a monotonic shape, as suggested by economic theory. We also discuss the consequences from an unconstrained estimation of price effects. 相似文献
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Christiane Brück 《Intereconomics》2002,37(4):223-228
The American current account deficit has once more become the subject of public debate. The size of the deficit is seen by some observers as the main cause of the recent decline in the exchange rate of the dollar. Can the latter be taken as confirmation of the increasing warnings that, in view of the dependence of the US economy on capital imports, adjustment processes such as a dramatic slump in the dollar exchange rate are imminent? What fundamental developments lie behind the US current account deficit, and do they give cause for significant adjustment reactions? 相似文献
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Christiane Goodfellow Martin T. Bohl Bartosz Gebka 《International Review of Financial Analysis》2009,18(4):212-221
This paper contributes to the debate about individual and institutional investors' trading behaviour with new evidence from the Polish stock market. While most existing studies focus on institutional investors' trading in developed markets, we test for the presence of herding during market up- and downswings on an emerging market. Our unique approach is to combine an established method relying on daily prices with institutional features of the Warsaw Stock Exchange. It enables us to separate individuals from institutions by examining two trading mechanisms with different investor structures. The empirical results suggest that individuals engage in herding during market downswings, while there is less evidence of imitating trading behaviour in bullish markets. Regardless of the state of the market, institutions' trading behaviour does not appear to exhibit herd behaviour. Further evidence suggests that herding by individuals becomes less pronounced over time. 相似文献